Publicação
Accessing the impact of COVID-19 on the Portuguese unemployment rate
| dc.contributor.advisor | Coelho, Pedro Miguel Pereira Simões | |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Damásio, Bruno Miguel Pinto | |
| dc.contributor.author | Miguel, Diogo Queiroz | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-05-03T17:06:54Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-05-03T17:06:54Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023-04-14 | |
| dc.description | Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business Intelligence | pt_PT |
| dc.description.abstract | We analyze the possibility of Vector Autoregressive models being good estimators for the unemployment rate in Portugal, by studying their ability to understand the impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on the unemployment rate. We make use of Bayesen Stochastic Search Variable Selection and bootstrapping techniques for forecasting, comparing the results of these models with two benchmark techniques, ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks. The model performance is tested through the RMSE, MSE and MAE of the estimations, and we compare the forecasting quality through a Diebold-Mariano test. We conclude that the VAR methodology can provide better forecasts than the benchmark models when combined with the Bayesian approach, both for shorter and longer forecasting horizons. We also conclude that COVID-19 did not provide the expected shock to the Portuguese unemployment rate. | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.tid | 203275667 | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/152363 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | pt_PT |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | COVID-19 | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | unemployment | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | vector autoregressive models | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | forecasting | pt_PT |
| dc.title | Accessing the impact of COVID-19 on the Portuguese unemployment rate | pt_PT |
| dc.type | master thesis | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| rcaap.rights | openAccess | pt_PT |
| rcaap.type | masterThesis | pt_PT |
| thesis.degree.name | Mestrado em Gestão de Informação, especialização em Gestão do Conhecimento e Inteligência de Negócio (Business Intelligence) | pt_PT |