Guerreiro, Gracinda R.Mexia, João T.Miguens, Maria F.2020-02-262020-02-262013978-3-642-34903-4978-3-642-34904-12194-7767PURE: 13327553PURE UUID: 4c575467-d97b-4c54-a89c-b8ee231ec109Scopus: 84908674230http://hdl.handle.net/10362/93356This work was partially supported by Financiamento Base 2009 ISFL-1-297 from FCT/MCTES/PT.Considering open portfolios, we analyze bonus–malus systems (BMS) under a realistic approach, as we already did in Guerreiro and Mexia (Discuss. Math. Probab. Stat. 24(2):197–213, 2004). Using stochastic vortices model we are now able to predict long-run distribution through confidence intervals.8159988engAnnulment probabilityClaim frequencyInitial classificationQuota shareTransient stateStatistics and Probabilitybook part10.1007/978-3-642-34904-1_23https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84908674230