Franco, FrancescoLacasta, Martinho Canto Moniz Duarte2024-05-242024-05-242023-01-202022-12-14http://hdl.handle.net/10362/167763We analyze the vulnerability of the Portuguese Public debt medium term sustainability with respect to the main Debt determinants that are outside the government’s control by setting a stochastic environment based on two main sources: European Commission and OECD. The method to generate random socks and consequently generate a probabilistic forecast is based on (Berti 2013), which is particularly suitable for forecasting shocks on the non-fiscal public debt determinants under a no-policy change scenario. Overall little evidence is found to support a potential unsustainable position in a 5-year period.engStochastic debt sustainability analysisUncertaintyInflation surpriseDebt-to-Gdp ratioShort term interest rateLong term interest rateImplicit interest ratemaster thesis203517369