Ottonello, GiorgioTaborda, RodrigoMelo, José David Pinzón2024-12-062024-12-062024-01-112023-12-20http://hdl.handle.net/10362/176265This finance master's thesis examines the predictive efficacy of the 10-year and 3-month (10Y3M) and the 10-year and 2-year (10Y2Y) U.S. Treasury bond yield spread in forecasting Real GDP fluctuations from Q1 1982 to Q2 2022, analyzing quarterly historical data from St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data and Bloomberg for 10Y3M, 10Y2Y, real GDP growth, and VIX series (1990 Q1 to 2022 Q2). Results suggest that relying solely on spreads for GDP predictions can be misleading and underscore their limited and inconclusive predictive ability, emphasizing the need for additional variables, such as the VIX index, to enhance predictive power.engYield spreadYield curveTerm structureEconomic downturnVixmaster thesis203680847