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The connection of North Atlantic and Arctic basins in the 21st century, challenges of maritime security and human security. Portugal in the Arctic. Scenario thinking (2023-2035)
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Esta investigação pretende avaliar o modo como a região do Ártico pode representar uma janela de oportunidade para Portugal em termos de política externa e estratégias de defesa e marítima, recorrendo a uma análise prospetiva e à cenarização no horizonte temporal 2023-2035. Portugal, na encruzilhada da conexão entre alterações climáticas, oceanos e Ártico, precisa de olhar mais para Norte: Atlântico Norte e Ártico. A tríade de temas espelhada no quadro teórico e conceptual que inclui: Green Theory, segurança marítima e segurança humana. Os dois oceanos comunicam entre si por via da Atlantificação, um dos fatores que acelera o degelo do désert de glace, colocando novos desafios à segurança não-tradicional: marítima no Atlântico, humana no Ártico. A confirmar-se o cruzamento destas duas seguranças na interseção dos dois oceanos, Portugal deve reposicionar-se a nível geopolítico e enquanto coprodutor de segurança marítima global e de prevenção da segurança humana. Destarte, os desafios transformam-se em oportunidade de Portugal estar no Ártico neste século, ou pelo menos conseguir dar mais atenção a esta região.
This research intends to evaluate how the Arctic region can be an opportunity for Portugal to add to its foreign policy as well as defence and maritime strategies, using the prospective analysis by presenting scenarios in the 2023-2035 timeline. Portugal finds itself at the crossroad between climate change, oceans and the closeness of the Arctic due to the possible expansion of the continental shelf and the melting of the Arctic Ocean that opens new maritime routes connecting Atlantic and Arctic regions. A trinity of topics represented by the theoretical and conceptual framework that includes: Green Theory, maritime security and human security. The two oceans already meet through the Atlantification process that is accelerating the melting ice and placing challenges to non-traditional security: maritime security and human security by confirming the crossroad of securities and oceans, Portugal needs to reposition at a geopolitical level as a global codeveloper of maritime security by preventing human security. Thus, challenges transform in opportunities for Portugal by being in the Arctic in the 21st century, or at least looking closely at this region.
This research intends to evaluate how the Arctic region can be an opportunity for Portugal to add to its foreign policy as well as defence and maritime strategies, using the prospective analysis by presenting scenarios in the 2023-2035 timeline. Portugal finds itself at the crossroad between climate change, oceans and the closeness of the Arctic due to the possible expansion of the continental shelf and the melting of the Arctic Ocean that opens new maritime routes connecting Atlantic and Arctic regions. A trinity of topics represented by the theoretical and conceptual framework that includes: Green Theory, maritime security and human security. The two oceans already meet through the Atlantification process that is accelerating the melting ice and placing challenges to non-traditional security: maritime security and human security by confirming the crossroad of securities and oceans, Portugal needs to reposition at a geopolitical level as a global codeveloper of maritime security by preventing human security. Thus, challenges transform in opportunities for Portugal by being in the Arctic in the 21st century, or at least looking closely at this region.
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Ártico Atlântico Oceano Portugal Segurança humana Segurança marítima Arctic Atlantic Human security Maritime security Ocean